Hand Samples

Hand No. 1

$10/$20 Limit Holdem: 5 players

Reads: CO is a solid regular (31/23) who caps aggressively in position

Preflop: I have 9♦9♥ in the small blind

Action: HJ folds, CO raises, BTN folds, I re-raise, BB folds, CO calls

Flop: 6♦5♣Q♥ ($70 – 2 players)

Action: I bet, CO calls

Turn: A♦ ($90 – 2 players)

Action: I bet, CO folds

After 3-betting preflop, my flop decision is not significant, but my thought process is. In the time between my flop bet and my opponent’s flop call, I am constructing a plan for the turn.

I estimate CO’s range to be approximately 35% (minus the top 10% which he would have capped preflop) and my equity to be over 70%. On any turn lower than a 9, my equity remains very good and I will continue betting for value. The same holds true for a Q turn. These facts require and deserve less than a second’s thought. They are automatic.

The cards I must plan for are an A, K, J, or T. The J and T are overcards to my pair, but my equity will still be quite good, and I will continue betting for value. The A and K pose a bigger problem. My equity will dip to 55% to 58% on these cards, provided that he just calls the flop with his whole range. If he raises his strong hands immediately, then I’m in better shape.

While my equity is still good on an A turn, CO will fold hands like K9, K8, J9, and T9. Depending on what he does with KJ, KT, and JT, I could have as little as 34% equity when I get called. While I am not making money on the bet that goes in, it is preferable to put it in myself than to check/call against this opponent. I expect to face a stronger range when my opponent bets. He will probably have just enough bluffs in his range to give me a very uncomfortable decision. In addition, there is value in getting CO to fold KJ, KT, and JT, each of which has 10 outs against my hand.

Finally, I consider whether my opponent is likely to raise an A turn as a bluff. I think he will only do this with his strongest draws, so I can safely bet and fold to a raise. If he would bluff raise with a high frequency, I could actually bet/call since there are so few value combos in his range.

That’s a lot of analysis for a card that hasn’t turned up yet, and that’s not even as thorough as it could be. But what would happen if I waited to do that analysis until after the turn came down? First, I would have less time to make my decision. Second, my opponent would see that I was taking my sweet time to make a decision. While timing tells are not always reliable, I don’t like to give away free information. Why let my opponent know that I have to think about this turn card? If I held an ace or air I might snap bet this turn. By thinking through the scenario before it occurs, I give myself an opportunity to add marginal hands to my snap-betting range.

One thing I haven’t mentioned yet is my preflop thought process. Whether to 3-bet with 9♦9♥ is not a decision that requires much consideration. It’s automatic. So as I click the ‘Raise’ button, I’m already thinking about what range my opponent will cap. This information plays a large roll in my turn decision, as a player who never caps heads up will have a much stronger calling range.

There is an ancillary benefit to all of this precognition. As I think through the potential turn scenarios, I am essentially playing these additional imaginary hands. In this manner, I can learn more from every hand I play and develop my skills faster.